Scouting The MLB - August 11

Scouting The MLB - August 11

Back to the grind with a 10-game MLB slate on Monday night

Weather Report

  • Strong storms are expected throughout the evening in Pittsburgh tonight, SP are risky and batters may be off the table if the forecast remains ominous
  • Scattered storms could be a factor in Atlanta and Chicago tonight

Stackable Menu

  1. Minnesota Twins visiting RHP Brad Peacock
  2. Tampa Rays visiting RHP Colby Lewis
  3. Baltimore Orioles hosting LHP Chris Capuano
  4. Miami Marlins hosting RHP Shelby Miller
  5. San Diego Padres hosting RHP Jordan Lyles

Longshot stack:Chicago Cubs hosting RHP Yovani Gallardo


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Pitchers

Two Studs:

Julio Teheran (ATL) vs. LAD: $8900 – Facing RHP Dan Haren

It’s pointless to recommend King Felix. The top SP on the board is obviously worth starting if you can afford him, but for significantly cheaper, Teheran is probably the SP with the 2nd best floor/upside combination tonight. He returns to Atlanta after 2 road starts, and has been absolutely dominant at Turner Field with a 1.48 ERA, .188 BAA, and 8.20 K/9 ratio in 11 starts this season. He held the Dodgers to 2 ER over 8 IP on July 31, and their lineup is growing increasingly toothless with Hanley Ramirez on the DL yet again. Teheran has a stellar 2.86 FIP and 5.86 K/BB ratio against RHB this season, so his horrendous start in Seattle could be attributed to the lack of RHB in the Mariners lineup. He should bounce back tonight.

Jake Arrieta (CHC) vs. MIL: $8000 – Facing RHP Yovani Gallardo

Arrieta is another RHP that will look to bounce back from an awful road start at home this evening. The Cubs RHP has a slightly lower K/9 ratio (9.07) at Wrigley Field, but he’s done a great job limiting damage as he’s sporting a 1.86 ERA and holding opposing batters to a measly .210 wOBA in 7 home starts. He’s holding RHB to a .230 wOBA this season, and the Brewers lineup is almost entirely comprised of right-handers. The combination of thin Colorado air, and facing the Rockies twice in a row seemed to lead to Arrieta’s disastrous outing last week, but he should be able to get his breaking pitches to bite in Chicago as he’ll likely get back to form with a Quality Start.



Value Play:

Bud Norris (BAL) vs. NYY: $7200 – Facing LHP Chris Capuano

Norris certainly hasn’t been overwhelming lately, but he’s got good enough stuff to post a Quality Start as these two teams battle for first place in the A.L. East. He’s coming off a solid outing in Toronto against another divisional rival, and defeated the Yankees in the Bronx earlier this season, allowing just 1 ER over 5 IP. Norris is a far better pitcher at home, where he’s sporting a 2.61 ERA this season. While the Orioles have had trouble providing run support lately, they should be able to get something going against mediocre LHP Chris Capuano. The Yanks offense has been boom or bust lately, as they’ve produced 1 run or fewer in 3 of their last 4 contests. Most importantly, Norris has not been particularly vulnerable against the platoon this season, so he may be able to hold the Yankees primarily left-handed lineup in check.

Longshot Pitcher:

Drew Hutchison (TOR) @ SEA: $6000 – Facing RHP Felix Hernandez

If he wasn’t facing the King, Hutchison would have more upside, but there’s a chance he steps up to the challenge and pitches a gem for the second consecutive start. The Blue Jays RHP struck out 8 over 8.2 IP as he produced 36.2 DK points last Wednesday, but has shown absolutely no consistency all season. He has at least been better on the road, where he’s sporting a 3.27 ERA in 14 starts this season. With an 8.15 K/9 ratio, Hutch may be able to exceed value even if he only pitches well in a losing effort.



Batters

Catcher:

Russell Martin (PIT) vs. DET: $3800 – Facing RHP Justin Verlander

Verlander’s actually posted Quality Starts in 4 consecutive outings, but his batted ball data indicates that he’s been a bit lucky during that stretch. The former Ace generates very few swings and misses, and Martin isn’t missing much these days. The Pirates backstop is hitting .400 this month as he’s stepped up in the absence of injured star Andrew McCutchen. He’s 6 for 14 with 2 BB in his career against Verlander, who is allowing RHB to sport a .372 wOBA this season. Martin’s reverse-platoon splits are favorable as well, as the veteran is batting .301 against right-handed pitching in 2014. After getting Sunday off, he should be back in the lineup and ready to rake.

Potential Value:

Joe Mauer ($3500) is expected to activated tonight for the Twins and walks into a plus matchup against weak RHP Brad Peacock.

Longshot:

Evan Gattis (ATL) is a good buy-low candidate at $3300. He’s facing Dodgers RHP Dan Haren, who has poor reverse-platoon splits and is allowing 1.48 HR/9 this season.



First Base:

Yonder Alonso (SD) vs. COL: $3400 – Facing RHP Jordan Lyles

It’s very difficult to find upside for the right price at 1B tonight. It’s usually a deep position, and a couple upper-tier options (Freddie Freeman for example) could likely produce decent DK-point totals, but for a low price, Alonso may exceed that output. He’s sat against LHP, but has been scorching hot otherwise since coming off the DL in late July. He’s 10-20 with 4 doubles and a HR this month, is averaging 12.75 DK points over his last 4 starts, and has the platoon advantage here. He also happens to be 4 for 6 with a couple doubles and a homer in a small sample size against Lyles. As long as he’s batting towards the middle of San Diego’s lineup at home, he’s worth a look in most formats.

Potential Value:

Freddie Freeman (ATL) is probably a safer option for 1K more if you’re unwilling to trust a part of the Padres below-average offense. Dodgers RHP Dan Haren posted his first Quality Start since June 30 against the struggling Angels, but he should allow Braves hitters to produce.

Longshot:

Garrett Jones ($3400) is a GPP-only play, but has great splits against Cardinals SP Shelby Miller (7-13, 2 doubles, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1.754 OPS) and is worth a look as the Marlins likely 5-hitter.



Second Base:

Ben Zobrist (TB) @ TEX: $4600 – Facing RHP Colby Lewis

As the Rays have turned their season around, so has Zobrist. The switch-hitting utility man is batting .368 since July 1, and .410 this month as he’s averaging 10.1 DK points over his last 10 games. He’s producing in a variety of a ways, drawing walks, stealing the occasional bag, and coming up with clutch hits as Tampa’s usual 2-hitter. Tonight, Zobrist and his teammates will face RHP Colby Lewis, who is allowing LHB to sport a .411 wOBA this season. That’s the 2nd worst mark amongst active SP. While Lewis is coming off 2 Quality Starts, those are basically his only impressive outings all season and he comes into tonight’s contest wearing a 7.62 ERA in 10 home starts. There are several useful Rays to use in 50/50 and H2H formats this evening.

Potential Value:

Jedd Gyorko ($3300) is worth consideration as long as he’s batting in the middle of the Padres order. He’s been an entirely different player lately as he’s batting a respectable .288 since coming off the DL in late July.

Longshot:

Because Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo has unraveled in several starts, the Cubs are a longshot stacking option against the sinkerballer. Super-prospect Javier Baez ($4600) would be worth the money if the home team starts to roll at Wrigley.



Third Base:

Josh Harrison (PIT) vs. DET: $4400 – Facing RHP Justin Verlander

There’s a chance Harrison will need a day off eventually, but if he’s still leading off as the Pirates host Justin Verlander this evening, he remains a great play in all formats. His ownership will be down due to his first lackluster outing in weeks (just 2 DK points yesterday), but at $4400, it’s hard to pass up a dual threat that is 3 for 4 on SB attempts over his last 5 games. Verlander has allowed a 79% success rate on steal attempts over the past 3 seasons, and has a 1.63 WHIP when facing RHB this season, so Harrison should be able to reach base, and will think about taking off if he gets the chance.

Potential Value:

Casey McGehee (MIA) is 6 for his last 17 (.353) and could be breaking out of his recent slump. He’s a great value at $2600.

Longshot:

Adrian Beltre ($4200) is a solid 4 for 7 in his career against Drew Smyly and generally crushes LHP. The Rangers cleanup hitter could have a big night.



Shortstop:

Brian Dozier (MIN) @ HOU: $4200 – Facing RHP Brad Peacock

Dozier certainly has a reputation as a boom-or-bust player, but he’s been a very safe option over the past couple weeks. The dual threat is batting .314, and has miraculously drawn a walk in each of his 9 appearances this month. That creates a nice floor for him as he takes on a SP that is generally awful, and has even worse reverse-platoon splits in Peacock. The Astros RHP has allowed a whopping 15 ER, walked 9 batters, and given up 4 HR over his last 2 starts, after failing to record more than 1 out in his previous start. Even if there’s something physically wrong with the right-hander, Houston will keep trotting him out there, and all Twins batters should be in play as a result.

Potential Value:

Jhonny Perlata (STL) is always a threat to produce, and has done just that with 14, 14, and 15 DK points in 3 of his last 4 games. At $3500, he’s a nice salary relief play with upside.

Longshot:

Stephen Drew ($2700) actually has the best splits against Bud Norris of any Yankees batter. The streaky LHB is 6 for 13 with 3 XBH and 4 BB against the Orioles starter, making him a longshot punt play tonight.



Outfielders:

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) vs. STL: $4700 – Facing RHP Shelby Miller

Shelby Miller may be a longshot value tonight, but many SP have produced decent FP totals against the Marlins while allowing Stanton to tattoo a couple pitches. Miami’s most dangerous hitter has homered in 3 of his last 4 contests, yet his price tag continues to fall. Now he’ll return home, where he’s batting .307 and averaging a stellar 11.3 DK PPG this season, to face a SP with a 1.49 HR/9 ratio 11 road starts. Stanton is likely the best outfielder to pay up for this evening.

Nelson Cruz (BAL) vs. NYY: $4400 – Facing LHP Chris Capuano

Cruz had a very rough June and July, as his average dropped all the way to .260 during that span. On Saturday, he hit his first HR in nearly 3 weeks, and has actually hit in 4 straight games as he looks to regain some of the momentum he had going in April and May. The Orioles’ slugger is an intriguing gamble tonight as he faces a LHP that is relatively vulnerable in my opinion. Capuano managed to pitch around Detroit’s inconsistent hitters, but was hit pretty hard by the Red Sox in his previous start and seemed lucky to only give up 4 ER in that outing. Cruz has an impressive .407 wOBA against LHP this season, which is boosted by a 15.3% BB rate. He has a pretty low floor, but his ceiling is sky-high as always.

Danny Santana (MIN) @ HOU: $3900 – Facing RHP Brad Peacock

The Twins leadoff man went through a brief slump last week, but after going 6 for 14 over his last 3 games it’s safe to say he’s found a rhythm once again. It’s good timing for the speedster, as he’ll face a SP that has allowed a 90% success rate (19-21) on SB attempts throughout his 3-year-career, and Peacock won’t have much help behind the plate as Astros backstop Jason Castro is throwing out just 25% of potential base stealers this season. With a .331 average against RHP and enough power/speed to provide upside, Santana remains a solid mid-tier option in all formats.



Potential Values:

Starling Marte (PIT) is 7 for 21 since coming off the DL last week and has tons of upside at $3700.

Matt Joyce ($3500) and Kevin Kiermaier ($3400) should both be in play against one of the worst SP against LHB in the Majors. Joyce has been very consistent against RHP and is a great play in all formats while Kiermaier is more of a longshot.

Delmon Young ($3100) could be a good value as the Orioles 6th or 7th hitter. He’s been solid against LHP throughout his career and is worth a look if you don’t believe in Chris Capuano’s ability.


I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7

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